The Economic Significance of Rising Inflation Uncertainty
We construct an econometric-based measure of real economic inflation uncertainty (inflation REU) that captures a historically elevated level of inflation uncertainty since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a sample of 39 countries representing 88% of global GDP, we find that U.S. inflation uncertainty currently exceeds 2 standard deviations above its historical mean and foreign inflation REU—calculated as the equal-weighted average of all other countries' inflation REU—remains around 4 standard deviations above its historical mean. While other components of real economic uncertainty (output and labor) have declined from their pandemic peaks, inflation REU remains elevated and is the dominant source of uncertainty today. We find evidence that innovations to both domestic and foreign inflation REU can induce negative and persistent drags to the U.S. economy.
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