“How do we cultivate epistemic virtues?”

We hypothesize that various features of forecasting tournaments, including diverse perspective-taking and performance feedback, will promote intellectual humility and related epistemic virtues, which in turn will promote open-mindedness, attitude depolarization, and greater judgmental accuracy.

Over the course of three years, we envision two forecasting tournaments on human progress—one with subject matter experts (SMEs) and superforecasters and another with everyday people—to investigate epistemic virtues and their development over time.